Bitcoin Market Analysis (August 8, 2022)

[Yesterday's resumption] The US non-farm payroll population increased by 528,000 after seasonal adjustment in July (250,000 expected), the largest increase since February this year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate both returned to pre-pandemic levels. On the surface, the non-farm payrolls data changed the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates, and the probability of a rate hike in September was raised to 75 basis points, higher than the previous 50 basis points. There were even rumors of another temporary rate hike ahead of the September 22 meeting, the last time a rate hike between the two meetings was in April 1994. Also because of the non-farm payrolls data, the market reduced bets on the Fed's rate cut in the first quarter.

What many students do not understand is why the data is so good, but it has turned into a negative situation. In fact, it is not difficult to understand. Because the employment market data is relatively good, the Fed is more confident to raise interest rates, because the data is good enough, and interest rate hikes are not necessary. Worrying that it will put pressure on employment, this is not expected in September, and expectations for interest rate cuts next year are all adjusted by the latest data.

After the market closed last Friday, Fed Governor Poman said that several large rate hikes of 75 basis points should continue to be considered, knowing that inflation has dropped significantly, and the size of the next rate hike will ultimately depend on economic data, although data and economic conditions will There is uncertainty about how it will develop, but he believes that it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates. The big hawk theory is indeed a bit scary. I think such remarks will affect the trend of the stock market tonight. Three-dimensional Fed officials will speak this week. At 23:00 on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Evans discussed the US economy and monetary policy. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will discuss inflation at 2 p.m. on Thursday. At 7:30 on Friday, San Francisco Fed President Daly was interviewed by Bloomberg.

The most frequently spoken word by the Fed is that future actions will be adjusted according to specific data. Then there will be a non-agricultural data and two CPI reports before the September meeting. On August 10, the United States announced the July CPI data, which is expected by the market. 8.9%, the previous value was 9.1%. On September 2, the United States announced the non-farm payrolls data for August. On September 13, the United States announced the CPI data for August.

In the process of converting Ethereum POW to POS, it gave those people with impure purposes the opportunity to clamor for the group of people who forked. Open your eyes to see who they are, and why every time they fork is China People lead, why can I get a lot of leeks every time, I am also more curious, maybe it is profitable, but I have said before, don't go to war, just smash the wool and sell it, then stay away, Stay away from those people. At present, DCG, Chainlink, etc. have clearly stated that they do not support forks. Everyone knows that it is not the miners that decide a chain, but the ecology. The miners only serve the ecology. If you are a POW believer, it is good to directly support ETC, because ETC is The most primitive ETH, or forking for the sake of forking, is either stupid or bad.

Check out what's coming up this week:

The KSM in the second round of Kusama Crowdloan will be released on August 8, 2022, and about 1,251,097 KSM will be unlocked this time.

Hoo launched a bond-to-currency conversion plan and a partner investment plan, and launched the bond-to-currency exchange function on August 8.

Blockchain platform Klaytn is expected to perform the Baobab Magma hard fork on August 8. The Magma hard fork introduces a dynamic gas pricing mechanism. The block baseFee will automatically increase/decrease according to the gas usage of the previous block, with a maximum change rate of 5%; the block baseFee is 25 ~ 750 ston, which can be adjusted by governance. Changed; half of the transaction fee for each block is destroyed.

Liquid pledge protocol pSTAKE Finance has voted on the proposal of "allocating 12 million PSTAKE tokens to incentivize stkBNB plan". The approximate distribution plan is: 4 million to PancakeSwa for a period of 60 days, and 4 million to Alpaca Finance for a period of 60 days , to distribute 4 million to other protocols (for a period of 60 days). It is reported that if the proposal passes, part of the PSTAKE token supply will be bridged from Ethereum to BNB Chain.

Virtual athlete Striker (formerly BAYC #6045) has signed with Major League Soccer to take part in the Aug. 10 MLS All-Star Game and play a forward role on the virtual arena.

Voyager Digital expects to resume cash withdrawals starting August 11, with customers able to withdraw up to $100,000 within 24 hours.

Lido Finance has launched the LUNA Classic unstaking process, which will take place in four stages. The second phase is from July 18th to August 12th, the agreement will release the pledge of bLUNA and stLUNA.

The Ethereum Goerli/Prater merger for the Paris execution layer transition upgrade is expected to take place between August 6 and 12, 2022 UTC (total difficulty 10790000).

Monero mining pool MineXMR has announced that it will shut down on August 12, before Monero miners need to reconfigure to use a different pool. Officially, miners are advised to transition to a decentralized p2pool, since there are no mining pool fees when using p2pool, a decentralized mining pool helps support the Monero network. Remaining pending rewards will be sent automatically after the pool is closed.

Hasu, head of strategy at Flashbots, said in response to the ETH PoW fork that many, including him, have been predicting for years that miners will fork Ethereum to extract the last profit from their investments. The large amount of computing power does not bring any significant value to the chain. The chance of a mainstream Stablecoin being redeemed on a forked chain is zero. “If anything goes wrong with the merger, it will just be delayed until the problem is resolved, and then the merger will take place a few weeks later. No one in the Ethereum community wants to continue using proof-of-work (PoW) other than miners. A huge trap. Miners, exchanges, and traders are all trying to justify their own self-interest, but no one wants to use or build ETH PoW.”

The gas fee of the Ethereum network has dropped to 4gwei over the weekend. In fact, this time is a good opportunity for interaction. The bull market can't do anything about it, and the high handling fee is unbearable, but it is different now. Everyone who has not interacted before can interact. Maybe the next bull market will issue coins, anything is possible.

[Bitcoin market analysis] The trend of Bitcoin over the weekend can basically be said to be sideways, and this trend also indicates that the direction is coming. In addition to the merger of Ethereum, there has been no other hot spot in the entire market, and no one in the entire community has discussed it. , This kind of atmosphere is a bit scary, and the popular GameFi scene in the bear market that we originally predicted has not happened now, because the so-called masterpiece products have never been launched, or have been launched, but it is difficult to popularize the public.

In view of the current situation, we only need to pay attention to whether the market rebound can continue. The reversal is definitely not expected this year, so in the short term, we can expect a rebound. Last week, we said that the market has been rebounding, but it is very, very weak. . From the current 4-hour level, it is still within the rebound range, but there is no clear bottom support signal at the 4-hour level. Although there is support at 8:00 on August 5, this support is too weak and can basically be ignored. Excluding.

At the 4-hour level, the lower support is around 22000 and the upper resistance is around 24000.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.