Bitcoin Market Analysis (August 1, 2022)

[Yesterday's review] There will be several data released this week from Laomei. These data are relatively critical, so we should also pay attention to them. At 22:00 on Monday evening, the U.S. July ISM manufacturing PMI data will be released. The market expects it to be 53, and the previous value is 52.9. This data is crucial for the Fed, and economists expect the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to fall further to 52.9 in July, the lowest level since July 2020. However, in terms of numbers, it is already close to the peak of 50. Once the actual data is significantly lower than market expectations, the direct consequence may be the intensification of the "economic recession" hype.

At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate data for July was released, the market expected 3.6%, and the previous value was 3.6%. At the same time, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data after seasonal adjustment in July was released, and the market expected it to be 25.5, and the previous value was 37.2. Economists expect the U.S. to add 255,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, down from 37.2 in June. From a numerical point of view, the number of non-agricultural employment is also close to the critical value. Non-agricultural employment remains above 200,000, and the labor market will be considered very strong. Since 2021, non-farm employment in the United States has generally remained above the 200,000 level, which is the confidence for the Federal Reserve to dare to raise interest rates sharply. As long as non-farm payrolls don't fall by 200,000, the "recession" factor doesn't have a huge impact on rate hikes. However, once the actual data is significantly lower than expected, the financial market's fear of a "recession" will intensify.

After reading the Fed's events this week, let's take a look at the key events in the currency circle:

1. TiTi Protocol, an algorithmic stablecoin protocol, will be launched on the testnet at 8:00 on August 1st, Beijing time. At the same time, testnet incentive activities will be launched. Users can receive Mock-USDC every 24 hours and earn tests in the testnet through strategies. Tokens, the more test tokens you get, the more chance you have to get rewards.

2. My Neighbor Alice has a land sale on August 1 for 15 days. 1000 lots will be minted, 975 lots will be auctioned in 5 rounds, 25 lots (5 lots per wave) will be given to auction participants by lottery at the end of the land sale.

3. The Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution zkSync will migrate its v1 testnets on Ropsten and Rinkeby to Goërli and Sepolia on August 2, respectively, to reduce the risk of network failures due to the merger. Developers will then need to redeploy the test environment on Goërli or Sepolia.

4. U.S. federal prosecutors in Washington have asked the court to postpone the hearing of the couple suspected of the Bitfinex theft and $4.5 billion in crypto-money laundering until August 2, because they need more time to sort through "a large number of financial records" and discuss with them. The couple reached a plea deal.

5. Hufu launched the debt-to-currency conversion plan and partner investment plan: The debt-to-currency conversion plan will be implemented on August 3.

6. The decentralized derivatives trading platform dYdX will migrate its servers on August 3. It is expected that there will be two hours of downtime (Beijing time 23:00 on the 3rd to 1:00 the next day), during which users will not be able to access On the trading platform, the order will not be filled.

7. Schwab Asset Management has launched its first encrypted ETF, Schwab Crypto Theme ETF, which will open for trading on or around August 4.

8. Dual minting NFT HERO on Terra and Solana has started minting on Stargaze.

As we analyzed last week, August is an information window period, so in the premise that there is no major negative information from the outside, the market will continue to fluctuate and rebound. However, everyone must pay attention to the rhythm here. It is very dangerous to chase the rally when it rebounds. If you are not careful, you will be trapped. Therefore, in the face of such a local explosion, everyone must be calm. You can watch the show if there is no good opportunity. Even if you don’t make money, don’t lose money. . This Friday's non-agricultural data is still quite critical, and it is possible to avoid market turbulence before and after this time node.

According to statistics from the 1ML website, the number of bitcoins locked in the Bitcoin Lightning Network has exceeded 4,400 (currently 4,416.02), worth about $104.8 million. In addition, the current Lightning Network node data is 17722 and the number of channels is 87007.

The Honduran tourist town of Saint Lucia has launched a local Bitcoin hub. The private project, called Bitcoin Valley, aims to create a bitcoin circular economy and increase the number of tourists in the region by promoting bitcoin in local stores. The project, which officially launched on Thursday, was jointly launched by Honduras Blockchain Organization, Guatemalan cryptocurrency exchange Coincaex, the Honduras Polytechnic University and the Municipality of St. Lucia, and about 60 stores will participate in the project.

Coincaex will provide merchants with the necessary equipment to accept Bitcoin payments. In addition, there are plans to popularize bitcoin and cryptocurrency education locally, and local students and entrepreneurs have the opportunity to participate in bitcoin courses lasting more than a month.

[Bitcoin market analysis] The weekly rebound continues. The real resistance above is around 28,000. It has been a small positive line for 3 consecutive weeks. At the same time, with the heavy volume at the bottom, the rebound will continue this week. After reaching around 28,000, the market will There is a downside retracement and then further validation or further consolidation of the support at the bottom. The current trend of the daily level is also relatively healthy. From the daily point of view, there has not been a decent pulling action, and it has been in the stage of constant challenges and continuous verification of relative bottom support.

At the 4-hour level, at 20:00 on July 30, the market broke the new high on July 20 and then adjusted downwards. It can be seen that the main force here is a false breakout trend, and then use the false breakout to make a retracement in the opposite direction to complete Short term basic harvest. However, all these manipulations have little impact on the market outlook, and the 4-hour level is still relatively healthy. After the adjustment is over, there is a high probability that it will follow the weekly pace to continue to verify the real resistance level.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risk is extremely high, please participate with caution, put an end to the full warehouse stud, and refuse loan leverage;