Talking about the death spiral of LUNA-UST and my views on the market outlook!

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The big waterfall last night made us revisit the familiar currency circle. In fact, the old leek knows in his heart that the crypto market has always been bullish and bearish since its birth. The bull market in each cycle is actually only a few weeks. Then there will be a long bear market and sideways. This bull market started in 2020. In the middle, we experienced the 312 panic, 524 bitcoin halving, the defi boom in June, and the global water release that started in September until the next April. Another high point. Next, we experienced the 519 waterfall, followed by the entry of institutional funds. The three major sectors of public chain, DEFI, and NFT rose. After entering 2022, the encryption market began to follow macroeconomic policies. The Fed’s tightening policy of raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets has begun to dominate the global financial market. Strictly speaking, the crypto market has begun a bear market cycle since the high of 69,000 in October last year. In addition, Musk stopped accepting Bitcoin in April last year. The 3-month-long correction and the 510 waterfall last night, so this round of bull market is still in line with the principle of bull short bear long, but it is better than the wave in 2017, DEFI, gamefi, algorithmic stablecoins The life cycle of ICO is also longer than that of ICO. Despite this, 99% of the projects on the market currently have difficulty surviving more than 3 years. I said so much without any other meaning, but to remind everyone that this market actually needs most of the time. It’s unrealistic to want the market to be excited all the time, so everyone must find the meaning of staying in the market when the market is cold. The reason why we write every day is the same, we must always keep calm and keep calm, in fact Many legends of getting rich in the currency circle are actually ordinary people. As long as you can travel through the bulls and bears a few times, you have the opportunity to become a member of the legend.

Speaking of the UST crash in recent days, I have already said that no matter how big Terra’s business is and how good the resources are, as long as his stable collateral does not reach more than 50% of the stablecoin’s market value, then Sooner or later, something big will happen. Let's recall the previous AMPL, ESD, BSD, MIC, etc. which were stable. Which one did not start out fiercely, and which one survived for a long time? Looking at the top 200 market capitalization of coingecko, is there any other than UST, and although this UST also has billions of various encrypted assets as reserves, but this is far from enough, even USDT, which is known as 100 There have been many problems with % USD collateral. Besides, the mechanism of UST and LUNA is actually not much different from BSD. It is also that if UST is less than 1 dollar, UST is burned to create LUNA, and if UST is greater than 1 dollar, LUNA is burned for additional issuance. UST, there is not much risk in this mode of forward circulation, that is, LUNA keeps rising and thus generates real value, so it is only necessary to issue additional UST to stabilize the price at 1 knife, and this also needs to consume LUNA, so LUNA The rise is even more fierce, but there is no currency in this world that will rise forever. Under the background of this global financial risk, it is difficult for LUNA not to fall, so the big players are not stupid, they will lose less if they run fast, and then UST’s The price is also decoupled, which makes LUNA fall even worse. This is how the recent death spiral occurred. In addition, LFG has a Bitcoin reserve of $2 billion, so the market was brought down like this.

The question now is whether the decoupling of UST will be the last straw to crush the broader market. To be honest, the current economic environment is not very good. Goldman Sachs took the lead in bearishing the US stock market this year. There are no eggs, remember that the crypto bear market in 2018 also appeared in the context of the sharp decline in the United States. Although the currency holding structure of this round of crypto market has undergone qualitative changes, major investors have shifted from individuals to institutions, but the facts Is it the ark capital of Sister Wood, or listed companies such as microstrategy and Galaxy Digital, or a sovereign country like El Salvador, all of which are already showing signs of loss. If the investment beliefs of leading institutions are shaken, then the market will really The acceleration is going down, but last night, the President of El Salvador bought 500 big cakes overnight, at least on the bright side, he did not give up configuring encryption, so in fact, everyone does not need to be too pessimistic, as long as the institutions still stick to it, the market still has opportunities.

Australia's Cboe trading platform issued a market notice that three previously delayed funds, a bitcoin ETF launched by Cosmos Asset Management, and a bitcoin and ethereum spot ETF from 21Shares, are expected to start trading on May 12. In my impression, Australia is not the first country to pass bitcoin spot ETF. Canada has passed Fidelity's spot ETF before. In fact, the more countries launch such products, the faster the US SEC approves bitcoin ETF. This is a good thing.

Today, some netizens posted an on-chain transaction record of Brother Sun's USDD casting. The record shows that the TRX destroyed in the process of casting USDD was entered into an address called Multisigtrxburn, but this address is not a black hole address, but a A multi-signature wallet named TRXBurn, which also means that the private key controller of this wallet can transfer TRX. Let’s not talk about whether TRON can successfully imitate the LUNA model to develop stablecoins, let’s talk about this False destruction is quite shameless. Is it a serious brain disease to play like this?

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BTC: Bitcoin has been falling for 5 consecutive days. Even so, we have not seen any signs of stabilizing and rebounding due to heavy volume. It is still a weak trend, and the market continues to sell, but this position is indeed a good buying point, and it is coming soon. The market has reached a divergence point, so everyone is more patient and waits for the market to rebound in the short term.

At the 4-hour level, there is currently no rebound, but from the perspective of 2 hours, it means a bit of support, so everyone has to wait patiently. If this position is empty, it is too unreasonable, so please calm down.

ETH: ETH is also implicated by the liquidation of luna, and fell with the market. Although there is a certain rebound today, it can be seen from the technical point of view that the stability crisis of UST has not been completely resolved, at least the pie of the Terra project party has not yet come out. In the short term, it is still a strategy of seeing more and moving less. In the long run, ETH is still one of the most valuable encrypted assets.

LUNA: It has completely entered a death spiral. This time, it is said that FTX has used another 2 billion US dollars to fight the fire, but now it is facing the impact of the macro economy. As long as UST is underwater for one day, it is difficult for LUNA to slow down the increase in issuance rate. I personally I think LUNA is more difficult to save this time.

APE: APE is basically the market market, and APE itself is in the stage of outflow of traffic, so it is still possible to go down in the short term, but APE is still a good copycat in the medium and long term, because the consensus of APE is good enough, and There is also a high probability of making a public chain in the future, so it is still optimistic in the long run.

GMT: The decline of GMT is larger than that of other cottages. It should be because the proportion of new leeks is too large, and the liquidity of GMT itself is better, so in extreme cases, capital flight is more serious, but if the market outlook If the market is picking up, traffic will still rush into the M2E sector first, and GMT is the absolute leader, so GMT is still an item that needs to be focused on.

FLOW: FLOW is also following the market trend of the market. Although the good news of the cooperation with meta was announced yesterday, and there is an expectation of listing coinbase in the near future, it can be seen from the disk that FLOW has not been strong enough to protect the market. I think it should be It is related to the lack of FLOW token empowerment, so the probability of FLOW in the short term is not high, but in the long run, this empowerment problem is easy to solve, as long as the stakeholders have enough chips, so it is better to hold FLOW for a long time.

Compared with yesterday's drop of nearly 10%, it seems that it is difficult for a single token to make waves in the face of the general trend. Even if FLOW has a high probability of listing on coinbase in the short term, in the medium and long term, the FLOW ecosystem is still worthwhile. Looking forward to not mentioning the stable nba and nfl, it is the attacking giant that will be launched today, and it is also a very good IP. If the problem of FLOW token empowerment can be solved in the future, then the probability of FLOW taking off is still very high.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.