Bitcoin market analysis丨2022-6-8

[Yesterday's resumption] The stock market in Laos and the United States has been rising for two consecutive days, and then there is no information in these two days. The day before yesterday, we said that the week before the meeting was a period of silence, and the officials would not make any statement. Therefore, in the absence of focus events, the market is most concerned about the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. It will become more important whether it is above or below the 3% level. Last night, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond failed to stabilize at 3%. % above, falling back to around 2.97%.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast model shows that the annualized growth rate of real U.S. GDP in the second quarter is expected to be only 0.9%, down from 1.3% on June 1, suggesting that the U.S. economy may experience negative growth for the second consecutive quarter. The World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 2.9% from 32.% in April and warned of the risk of stagflation, noting that the war in Ukraine has led to higher inflation and more strained financial conditions.

Whether forecasting models or forecast downgrades, the market is currently waiting for a signal, which is Friday's CPI data, and from the current trend, people seem to believe that the Fed can control inflation and soften the economy. Bank of America also said trading by retail investors showed that a recession is not expected anytime soon, and despite warnings from the CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and others, retail investors have been buying riskier stocks rather than defensive ones. Stocks, that is to say, everyone's confidence has not been lost. Now everyone is betting on the Federal Reserve. I believe it can solve the problem of high inflation. We are looking forward to the only uncertain September now. More time to breathe.

Yesterday, you also saw that the Senate released a draft on the regulation of the currency circle. This draft is very long, and there are many and very strict regulatory measures. The main thing is to require everyone to register entities in the United States, whether it is dao or dex. , or defi, which means that the registered entity needs to pay taxes, need kyc, need anti-money laundering, etc. These measures are easy to say, but very difficult to do, they ignore the essence behind the blockchain network , We were still discussing this issue yesterday. Even if these projects in the currency circle are regulated one day, there will be no problem. Anonymous projects will come out in minutes, such as anonymously copying a UNI, anonymously copying an aave, etc. In fact, if you use traditional It is not only difficult but also completely unworkable to supervise the currency circle with a new thinking mode. Strong and unreasonable supervision will only make decentralized anonymous projects more and more powerful.

Recently, I have been reading books related to the Japanese economy, because the current Chinese economy is a bit like the Japanese economy of the year. The most important reason for Japan's decline was that the debt was too heavy, and major companies and employees had no motivation to borrow and start a business, even if the interest rate was zero. The unwillingness to overdraft the future directly caused Japan to miss the trend of Internet and technology development, so you can see that Japan is very active in the development of blockchain, including the recently popular WEB3 concept, in fact, everyone I understand that no one likes to miss it, including the domestic one, but the domestic one is even more so, so there is always thunder and rain. Therefore, the blockchain entrepreneurial environment in Japan, Singapore and other countries will be very good in the future. Students who have ideas should hurry up. After all, this is a big change unseen in a century. If you do it well, you can change the world hahaha.

The Japanese government approved the "Basic Guidelines for Economic and Fiscal Operation and Reform in 2022" yesterday. The policy mentions that to create new value by promoting a more decentralized and trustworthy Internet, expanding and popularizing digital assets on the blockchain, and allowing users to manage and use their own data, Japan will strive to achieve this Decentralized digital society to make necessary environmental improvements. This means that the Japanese government plans to start a comprehensive improvement of the Web3 environment.

MachineFi Lab, the core developer of the IoT public chain IoTeX, has completed a $10 million seed round, led by Samsung Next, Draper Dragon Fund, and Jump Capital. Hashkey Capital, IOSG Ventures, Escape Velocity, Goodwater Capital, Xoogler Ventures, Wemade, Hanwha, Alpha Grep, DHVC, Vista Lab, Ribbit Angel Fund, NewBuild VC, etc. participated in the investment. Funding will fuel MachineFi Lab’s global machine sharing economy platform. The platform will facilitate economic incentives for people to contribute their resources of intelligent machines and devices and their real data to the network.

Forbes announced the list of the top 50 most innovative financial technology companies in 2022, of which 9 crypto companies have entered the list, namely FTX (the latest valuation of $32 billion), OpenSea ($13.3 billion), and Alchemy ($10.2 billion) ), Ava Labs (token AVAX has a market cap of $8.5 billion), Circle ($9.0 billion), Chainalysis ($8.6 billion), Fireblocks ($8.0 billion), Paxos ($2.4 billion), and TRM Labs ($600 million) .

The New York state legislature has passed a bill that would suspend the use of fossil fuel power plants to power miners of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, but Gov. Kathy Hochul's office said Monday she was still weighing whether to sign the bill. "This involves a balancing act, a very important balancing act," Hochul said in the statement. "We have to strike a balance between protecting the environment, but also protecting jobs in those areas with less activity and ensuring that these entities consume energy is properly managed.”

If the governor of New York State signs this bill, it means that it will be bad for Bitcoin in the short term, which will affect the trend of the broader market to a certain extent, so everyone should pay attention to it in the near future.

[Bitcoin market analysis] Bitcoin is currently drawing the door, and this kind of market is very similar to the trend of the bottom range. When the market is at the relative bottom of a certain cycle, the market will repeatedly rub, test resistance repeatedly, and go down. To test the support, since Bitcoin reached the lowest level of 26700 on May 12, it has been repeatedly friction for nearly a month, and it has not fallen below the 26700 position during this time, so we repeatedly say that it is a rebound at the 4-hour level. The trend, but the trend will be very weak because of macro-level reasons. At 8 o'clock yesterday, the market clearly fell below, and with such strength, it has the characteristics of further killing, but after 12 hours of sawing, the market pulled back again, and it was perfect to draw a downturn, Such a move means that the market still hasn't come out of the uncertainty, so it will take time.

At the 4-hour level, if it falls below 29500 again, it means that the market acceptance is still very weak, which means that there is a high probability that the support level will continue to be tested downward. This position is between 28000 and 26000. Below 29500, it means that the market will continue to oscillate upwards. Once the range is opened, the rebound will officially come.

Of course, this is a rebound rather than a reversal. Don’t forget that in July and September, there are still expectations of interest rate hikes. Currently, it is still in the cycle of shrinking the balance sheet, and the macro level is not allowed to reverse.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risk is extremely high, please participate with caution, put an end to the full warehouse stud, and refuse loan leverage;

❤Coin exchange: https://linktr.ee/btc18806