15. Why was Qianlong not nervous (understanding of sympathy)

The Macartney mission to China in 1793 was the last chance for China to start the process of modernization decently. It’s different from now that we are eagerly watching other people’s new product launches. At that time, the British traveled across the ocean, begging for nothing, packing and shipping novelties such as foreign guns and cannons, machine clocks and other novelties that represented the highest level of the industrial revolution at that time. to us. The bragging and threats contained in it are put aside first, and the sincerity that gives enough face, the door-to-door service is completely unstoppable by the people of the earth.

So it's hard to imagine how hard and stubborn one needs to be in order to be indifferent to these industrial products that are far beyond the technical capabilities of traditional societies and have obvious strategic value. Of course Macartney couldn't figure it out either. He wrote angrily in his diary: "Does it (the Beijing court) really fail to understand that just a few British warships can wipe out the entire navy of the Empire?" Because when he wanted to come, even if Lord Qianlong didn't read the 600 boxes of gifts, but at least watched the model of the "King" battleship he presented. Did this old man think that the densely packed 110 naval guns were clothes poles? Taking a step back, even if the model is not real, at least his flagship, the 64-gun "Lion", is parked in Dagu Port. Just find a local official to verify it, and you should know that George III of the British Empire is by no means relying on it. A few shotguns dare to Yelang arrogant Shengfan chief.

Macal was very injured, and when future generations read history, they would often grit their teeth and sigh, because the toast in 1793 was not eaten, and the penalty drink in 1840 was not far away. If you are indifferent to models of steam engines, repeaters, howitzers, and battleships, you can only wait for the real guy to break in. It is puzzling that a period of stumbled and lost face in modern times actually originated from the wise master known as "Shiquan Wu Gong".

But we have to be careful, thinking that others are too stupid is itself a kind of stupidity. Macartney did not know that, judging from a series of related decrees from Qianlong, his attitude towards the British mission was not as cold and contemptuous as it seemed. The "Kingdom" model that the British valued most has indeed aroused the attention and interest of the emperor who is very familiar with the war. Therefore, a more reasonable explanation is that what really made Qianlong feel that it was not too important was actually a detail revealed by Macartney himself.

When a visitor came from afar, the etiquette of course was to ask about the hardships on the road first. Macartney was very honest: they set off at the end of September 1792 and arrived in Tianjin in August 1793, and more than 100 of their 400 followers died on the way. . How shrewd is Qianlong? You can tell by listening to it. Fighting a war is a matter of logistics. With a journey of more than ten months, a quarter of the mortality rate, even if your entire ship is Ultraman, how can you defend the foundation of our dynasty? What's more, in the earliest Sino-British military conflict, that is, the Humen artillery battle in 1637, the barbarians did not see any advantage. Whether it is from the analysis of the current situation, strategic laws or existing cases, Qianlong's calm and self-confidence are not unreasonable.

Only one thing Qianlong did not understand is that historical development has entered a stage of unpredictable acceleration. When the Opium War started, it only took two months for the British warships to travel around most of the world from the mainland, but it took Lin Zexu 63 days to get from Beijing to Guangzhou. .

However, Qianlong is not ashamed, and the smart people who fell into this pit are very good. In 1946, some people predicted that there would be few TVs. In 1977, some people predicted that computers would not be popularized. In 1995, some people predicted that the Internet would not be able to defend the newspaper industry. In 2007, some people predicted that the iPhone would not occupy more markets. These prophets are traditional industry leaders, and their failures are precisely due to past successes. In contrast, predicting that Yingyi would not be able to turn a big wave is a sympathetic mistake.

Therefore, it is wrong to scold the ancestors, just as it is unreliable to return to the original and start a new one. The old ancestors have basically considered everything that they can consider, but the changes in the world have long exceeded the range that old wisdom can predict.