miscellaneous talk

I didn't write an article after taking a break for a long time. Part of it was because my family was sick again after my surgery and recuperation, so I had to take care of her, and my trading mode has also changed to a more passive transaction. On the other hand, with the end of the capital party, the market situation has also become more treacherous.

With the decision to raise interest rates by one yard after the meeting of the Federal Reserve on the evening of March 16, it also officially represents the arrival of the interest rate hike cycle. Therefore, it becomes important to review the status of previous interest rate hikes, which will help us understand the market's Variety. In the 42 years since 1980, there have been 6 interest rate hike cycles. In the six cycles, there has been no decline. Most of the time, it has been consolidating, but three have been consolidating and then rising. The rate cut after the rate hike is actually a super fund party. Everyone recalls that after the last rate hike at the end of 2019, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates continuously, and funds poured into the market to provide a lot of liquidity. Not only did it recover the points that fell before, but it also Pause to new highs.

I think that in the cycle of gradually rising interest rates, as financing costs increase, companies will usher in a wave of reshuffles, and companies with poor performance and poor operating efficiency need to transform and upgrade. Washing out some zombie companies that have been raised by capital parties will help to adjust the economy. Taiwan has not raised interest rates for a long time. Now there are zombies everywhere. to close down.

This article is very casual, if any readers have individual questions